[lug] CANCELLED: Boulder Linux User's Group - March Meeting - Boulder Linux Users Group - Mar 12, 2020

[Bucky Carr]

So-called "flattening the curve". Pros/cons to doing that.

The CFR link you posted looks like it is using only Chinese data. 
Local experiences can be very different. For example, if we follow 
Italy's path, the 70-79 CFR looks more like 30%+. One Chinese MD with 
whom I communicate even said, "We have done things in China which 
likely cannot be done in the West."

Of course it is a machine with lots of moving parts. The obvious 
common sense practices need to be observed, like it or not.


On 3/17/2020 1:48 AM, duboulder wrote:
> See 
> https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/ 
> for more information about the age related fatality rates and 
> results from a report by WHO and China.
>
> See the chart in 'Who is most at risk of getting critically ill and 
> dying?'.
> Looks like the fatality rate is about 4% for ages 60-69, 8% for 
> 70-79, 15% 80+ 1%.
>
> Later in the article:
>
> 'Though the case fatality rate is not yet clear for COVID-19 (as 
> noted above), it so far appears to be significantly higher than the 
> CFRs seen from seasonal flu in the US.'
>
> Another issue is whether the health care system would collapse if 
> there was a short-term spike in serious cases vs. a more extended 
> period for them to be handled.