[lug] COVID19

[Scott Kruger]

This report was influential:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-chilling-scientific-paper-helped-upend-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/2020/03/17/aaa84116-6851-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html


Here's another discussion:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/


On 3/19/20 12:17 PM, Davide Del Vento wrote:
> Thanks much this is a great read. For those who do not have time or 
> stamina to read it, here are a few key findings from the report. I'll 
> refrain from stating my opinion but I think it helps to put things in 
> context that the death toll for regular pneumonia and regular flu is 
> 200,000 per year and that cardiovascular diseases (mostly due to eating 
> habits) kills about 1 million a year (and this latter number increases 
> substantially each year).
> 
> In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a 
> vaccine is available. Furthermore,there is no guarantee that initial 
> vaccines will have high efficacy.
> 
> To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be 
> maintained until large stocks of vaccine areavailable to immunise the 
> population–which could be 18 months or more.
> 
> In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 
> 510,000 deaths in GBand 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the 
> potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on 
> mortality.
> 
> In combination, this intervention strategy is predicted to reduce peak 
> critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number ofdeaths. 
> However,this “optimal” mitigation scenario would still result in 
> an8-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the 
> available surge capacity in both GB and the US.
> 
> We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable 
> strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the 
> measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound.
> 
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 9:52 AM Bucky Carr <bcarr at purgatoire.org 
> <mailto:bcarr at purgatoire.org>> wrote:
> 
> 
>     For those who like reading such, here is a nice paper from the UK
>     where they model various scenarios (with the axes labeled!) and show
>     why their opinion is that "epidemic suppression is the best strategy
>     at this time."
> 
> 
>     <https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf>
> 
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