[lug] COVID19

[Stephen Queen]

https://www.thehour.com/business/article/U-S-economy-deteriorating-faster-than-15147050.php

Again I wonder if the economic cause of death and misery will out weight
the benefits of the solution suggested by the medical community. After
looking at the links that people have posted I didn't see any known
economists on the teams making the suggestions and only 1 MBA. In fact the
social implications mentioned were only discussed in terms of the spread of
disease. The economic studies that were cited only discussed how school
closures would effect working parents. The surgery was a success, to bad
the patient died!

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:02 PM Scott Kruger <kruger at txcorp.com> wrote:

>
>
> This report was influential:
>
>
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-chilling-scientific-paper-helped-upend-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/2020/03/17/aaa84116-6851-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html
>
>
> Here's another discussion:
>
>
> https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
>
>
> On 3/19/20 12:17 PM, Davide Del Vento wrote:
> > Thanks much this is a great read. For those who do not have time or
> > stamina to read it, here are a few key findings from the report. I'll
> > refrain from stating my opinion but I think it helps to put things in
> > context that the death toll for regular pneumonia and regular flu is
> > 200,000 per year and that cardiovascular diseases (mostly due to eating
> > habits) kills about 1 million a year (and this latter number increases
> > substantially each year).
> >
> > In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a
> > vaccine is available. Furthermore,there is no guarantee that initial
> > vaccines will have high efficacy.
> >
> > To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be
> > maintained until large stocks of vaccine areavailable to immunise the
> > population–which could be 18 months or more.
> >
> > In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately
> > 510,000 deaths in GBand 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the
> > potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on
> > mortality.
> >
> > In combination, this intervention strategy is predicted to reduce peak
> > critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number ofdeaths.
> > However,this “optimal” mitigation scenario would still result in
> > an8-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the
> > available surge capacity in both GB and the US.
> >
> > We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable
> > strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the
> > measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound.
> >
> > On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 9:52 AM Bucky Carr <bcarr at purgatoire.org
> > <mailto:bcarr at purgatoire.org>> wrote:
> >
> >
> >     For those who like reading such, here is a nice paper from the UK
> >     where they model various scenarios (with the axes labeled!) and show
> >     why their opinion is that "epidemic suppression is the best strategy
> >     at this time."
> >
> >
> >     <
> https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
> >
> >
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> --
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