[lug] COVID19

Sat Mar 21 08:15:58 MDT 2020

If we don't do a hell of a lot more, NOW, millions will die, rather horribly, Including the people we need to treat us.  Many will nearly die.  Both of those events will be scarring, You really don't want that kind of ptsd.  If a lot of people are sick, a lot will get other illness that may kill or permanently disable them.  If it all happens in a short time frame, The economy will be hit harder.  Iff we are agressive now, a lot fewer people will die.  Please, we are already out of mask and swabs for testing, It's frankly retarded that we aren't doing more, YESTERDAY.  People need to trust the experts, none of them want the great depression.  There will be no breakthroughs in the near future, Likely not for some time.  How long did it take to cure the common cold?  Oh, that's right we haven't.  Once again I have to question why so few people, including the technically oriented understand so little about biology, it's as close to an owners manual as you will get.   Also reminded how few people really understand even basic math.  Do you think the loss of millions and all the grievers will effect the economy?  Cemeteries are already overwhelmed.  seriously, look at Italy and south Korea.  Or we can desperately look for a delusion we like more than reality.  If you don't like biology and medicine, Try history.  Many in government saw this risk years ago, but some people don't listen, some don't get it, and some are malignant narcissist who want people to die, There's one of those in the White House, A few in congress, and many  in society.  Some call them selves accelerist and literally want to destroy society, now, because they honestly think they will come our on top.  If you don't care about others, consider how you may be affecting and shortening your' own life.  Listen to the people who have spent decades trying to serve the public, and actually accept responsibility for what they say and do.  Ignore those who refuse to take responsibility for what they do, and think a Magical cure may save us, It's not bloody likely.

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‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 6:05 AM, Stephen Queen <svqueen at gmail.com> wrote:

> https://www.thehour.com/business/article/U-S-economy-deteriorating-faster-than-15147050.php
>
> Again I wonder if the economic cause of death and misery will out weight the benefits of the solution suggested by the medical community. After looking at the links that people have posted I didn't see any known economists on the teams making the suggestions and only 1 MBA. In fact the social implications mentioned were only discussed in terms of the spread of disease. The economic studies that were cited only discussed how school closures would effect working parents. The surgery was a success, to bad the patient died!
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:02 PM Scott Kruger <kruger at txcorp.com> wrote:
>
>> This report was influential:
>>
>> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-chilling-scientific-paper-helped-upend-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/2020/03/17/aaa84116-6851-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html
>>
>> Here's another discussion:
>>
>> https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
>>
>> On 3/19/20 12:17 PM, Davide Del Vento wrote:
>>> Thanks much this is a great read. For those who do not have time or
>>> stamina to read it, here are a few key findings from the report. I'll
>>> refrain from stating my opinion but I think it helps to put things in
>>> context that the death toll for regular pneumonia and regular flu is
>>> 200,000 per year and that cardiovascular diseases (mostly due to eating
>>> habits) kills about 1 million a year (and this latter number increases
>>> substantially each year).
>>>
>>> In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a
>>> vaccine is available. Furthermore,there is no guarantee that initial
>>> vaccines will have high efficacy.
>>>
>>> To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be
>>> maintained until large stocks of vaccine areavailable to immunise the
>>> population–which could be 18 months or more.
>>>
>>> In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately
>>> 510,000 deaths in GBand 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the
>>> potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on
>>> mortality.
>>>
>>> In combination, this intervention strategy is predicted to reduce peak
>>> critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number ofdeaths.
>>> However,this “optimal” mitigation scenario would still result in
>>> an8-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the
>>> available surge capacity in both GB and the US.
>>>
>>> We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable
>>> strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the
>>> measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound.
>>>
>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 9:52 AM Bucky Carr <bcarr at purgatoire.org
>>> <mailto:bcarr at purgatoire.org>> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>     For those who like reading such, here is a nice paper from the UK
>>>     where they model various scenarios (with the axes labeled!) and show
>>>     why their opinion is that "epidemic suppression is the best strategy
>>>     at this time."
>>>
>>>
>>>     <https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf>
>>>
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>>
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