[lug] COVID19

Sun Mar 22 12:17:00 MDT 2020

We have a very serious problem on our hands there is no doubt. When I  view
the maps that show the progress of this disease, it doesn't appear to
really care about the politics of the people it attacks. I'll try and write
out a problem statement as I understand it, then discuss the the issues
with the current solution. There is a disease, COVID-19 (from here on out
abbreviated C-19 just to make it easier to type). It is highly contagious
and sweeping through the human population on our entire planet. It is
devastating  the largest economies in the world. So far it appears to be
far more fatal than H1N1. Unlike H1N1 it appears that C-19 is not seasonal.
In other words when the warm seasons come to our hemisphere the disease is
going to be unaffected. Vaccines are not anticipated for another 12 to 18
months.

The current solutions offered to us are a binary choice. As the medical
establishment in the US and other developed nations exists, the way to
minimize fatalities is to have widespread population isolation. In that way
the medical establishment does not become overwhelmed and as people become
infected, the probable fatal cases can be given more focus reducing the
fatality rate. The other is to do nothing and watch the fatality rate go
unchecked. The first solution was developed modeling how to successfully
respond to an H1N1 outbreak. These methods were used in the H1N1 outbreak
of 2009, though a lot of us didn't notice because the outbreak started late
in the cold seasons and ended at the beginning of the warm seasons in each
hemisphere. Further success of this strategy is that small communities in
the US used this technique in the H1N1 outbreak of 1918. To justify the use
of the second strategy for C-19 we are given a graph that compares the "do
nothing" to "population isolation". The do nothing shows that time axis is
narrow and has a much higher peak. The population control shows a greatly
reduced peak but a wider time frame thus not overwhelming the medical
facilities.

Before I discuss the issues with the choices given, I would like to touch
on what segment of the population is most like to have fatalities. The
fatalities for H1N1 were the younger segments of the population. Older
people had been exposed to this at some time in their lives and had some
immunity. C-19 causes fatalities in the older population and the medically
compromised. Now comes the big question, who are the medically compromised?
In my research I have not seen this defined. I am willing to guess that a
large segment of this population is people who have made lifestyle choices
that deteriorated their health. These include but are not limited to
smokers, alcoholics, drug abusers and the inactive. Another group would be
people with non lifestyle diseases such as asthma and allergies. As a
matter of disclosure, I'm in the older population. I quit smoking many
years ago, and have followed what I consider a healthy diet,I don't drink,
and I have a healthy level of activity. So if I contract the disease I
don't expect to go to the hospital.

The problem with just letting this disease run it's course is somewhat self
evident. I'll briefly re-iterate that the death toll maybe much higher than
necessary.

The problem with taking a course of action designed to mitigate the death
toll from H1N1 is that it has many obvious flaws to it. With H1N1 we (by we
I mean all humanity) only had to get through the cold season in our
hemisphere and the warm season would buy us the time for a vaccination to
be produced. C-19 is not expected to be reduced  by the warm season. Look
at the global infection map and you can see it is spreading through the
southern hemisphere almost as fast as the northern. If it is true that C-19
won't be slowed by the warm season, how will that effect the strategy of
isolation? Can the world population remain isolated for up to 18 months? If
we don't remain isolated then all of that we have done with the a fore
mentioned graph is shift the peak from the beginning of the pandemic to
somewhere not on the edged, depending on how long we can remain isolated.

The isolation has already caused the global stock markets to crash, Why
should we be concerned about that? The stock market is an indicator of the
health our economy. Let's not worry about our personal wealth. Let's worry
about the wealth of the planet. Wealth is just another way of modeling
resources. Resources are already plummeting. If we stay in isolation for 18
months, we will be in existential trouble. All economic resources start
with human activities. If the human population of the planet stays idle for
18 months, most of our accumulated resources will be exhausted. The impact
on the human population and the environment will be devastating. With the
economic decline the poorer nations will be hardest hit. Old epidemics such
as cholera will re-appear in the cities. Already there is a shortage of
sanitary supplies, think toilet paper. People still have to use the toilet.
If they don't have toilet paper they will still want to clean up
afterwards. They will start using alternatives to toilet paper that are not
good for the sanitation system. If done in mass, this will cause failures
in some areas of the sanitation disposal systems. That will lead to
cholera.

With the failure of the economy social unrest could easily be triggered.
With some economies sinking faster than others, age old disputes may flare
up causing the nation with the stronger economy to attack their age old
enemy while they are weak. If another natural disaster occurs such as
hurricanes or earth quakes it will be much more difficult to provide
relief. Here is link that shows the satellite view of the border of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic.
 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Dominican+Republic/@19.226012,-71.6690484,10202m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x8eaf8838def1b6f5:0xa6020f24060df7e0!8m2!3d18.735693!4d-70.162651?hl=en
<https://www.google.com/maps/place/Dominican+Republic/@19.226012,-71.6690484,10202m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x8eaf8838def1b6f5:0xa6020f24060df7e0!8m2!3d18.735693!4d-70.162651?hl=en>
If you zoom in you can see the border because the country with more
resources has a better cared for natural environment. When humans are
starving, they eat whatever is available. You have to survive today in
order to worry about next year. I can think of many humane reasons to try
and keep the economy strong as we can.

The key to solving the problem as stated by the medical professionals is to
not let the existing medical system become overwhelmed. I would say that we
should not try and preserve the "existing medical system". Even without
this crisis it has become too expensive.  It needs to be rapidly modified
so that people receive the care they need quickly no matter how many get
sick. I realize that there is going to be some latency here, and the price
for that is going to be in human lives. We must face the fact there is
going to be a high loss of life either way. We must try and minimize it.

My suggestion is that for this emergency we abolish the divisions in the
health care industry as they exist. Doctors should be preserved for the
edge cases. RN's placed in charge of primary care to fill the void that was
made by doctors. Standard protocols are in place for most disease states
that I'm sure RN's could follow. LPN's shifted up to replace the RN's. MA's
shifted up to replace LPN's and give the people in charge the ability to
promote a competent health care worker to the positions needed to fill a
void. Pharmacists should be allowed to write prescriptions.  Liabilities to
the health care workers should be limited for the duration of the crisis.
We've been in the midst of a construction boom, re-allocate raw materials
to build temporary patient care rooms. Start recruiting (drafting, much
like the military draft, in fact a lot of you people are already registered
for that) people and give them accelerated training to help with health
care, much like paramedics or corpsmen. These changes could be implemented
in the next week while those who don't want to join the fray remain in
isolation. Then have everyone return to work and try and bring the economy
back up to strength.

We in this group have spent most of our professional lives solving
problems. I doubt any of us would respond with "fire the boss" as the best
solution to a problem at work no matter how incompetent he/she was. This is
a problem that needs fast and real world action. Do we really need one of
the 2 binary solutions now being offered. I think we should bring our
economic strength to bare while we still have it.

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 7:17 PM madscientistatlarge <
madscientistatlarge at protonmail.com> wrote:

> When people are being reckless narcissist during a crises, Yeah, they
> desperately need a reality check!  And Trump needs to step Down,
> yesterday!  Millions will die, because millions were narcissist with their
> head in the sand.  GET FUCKING REAL, or die quickly so the rest of us can
> do the right thing to some effect!
>
>
> Sent with ProtonMail Secure Email.
>
> ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
> On Saturday, March 21, 2020 7:13 PM, Jed S. Baer <blug at jbaer.cotse.net>
> wrote:
>
> > On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 00:56:51 +0000
> > madscientistatlarge wrote:
> >
> > > Please spend some time cultivating your' humanity rather than your
> > > already excessive and insecure ego.
> >
> > Gee, do you think this is the time or the place for insulting people?
> >
> > Web Page: http://lug.boulder.co.us
> > Mailing List: http://lists.lug.boulder.co.us/mailman/listinfo/lug
> > Join us on IRC: irc.hackingsociety.org port=6667 channel=#hackingsociety
>
>
> _______________________________________________
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